You can learn a lot from the past. Gauging the current state of the console wars is no different; historical context can be enormously helpful. In this article, our goal is simple: to predict the commercial victors of the next-gen console war.

But how? Easy: by comparing the sales of the last-gen consoles — the PS2, Xbox, and GameCube — to the current crop of next-gen consoles using a concept called “sales velocity”. Sales velocity is just a fancy name for how fast (or slow) something sells over a period of time. In this case we’ll examine the launch numbers and examine the complete last-gen sales cycle. And even though the data is U.S. only, what bodes well here generally bodes well globally and vice-versa (with the occasional exception, such as the PC Engine’s monstrous success in Japan).

First up, Last-Gen Sales Velocity in terms of the first five months of launch:

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